The coronavirus pandemic has changed all of our worlds, and not just in the short-term. Outside of healthcare – where heroes dressed in gowns are battling on the front lines – few industries have been hit like travel.
In my own company, bookings are down by over 95%, while nations have been ordered to stay at home, airlines have gone bankrupt, travel companies are laying off massive amounts of workers and hotels are now hospitals.
When things do start to return to “normal,” travel, especially international travel, will look very different. Here are the top changes I see coming.
1. The queue at immigration will be longer than ever before
We’re already seeing with China, Singapore and South Korea – countries that feel like they are on top of their respective outbreaks – that the biggest worry now is new infections coming from the outside.
Korea is ordering all persons entering from the United States and Europe to isolate for two weeks, even if they test negative for COVID-19. Those without a permanent residence are being sent directly to an isolation ward. Manufacturers of heat cameras are seeing a spike in demand.
Even when lockdowns in Europe are over and we start to travel again, countries will test at the border. If you thought the line at JFK immigration control in New York was torturous before, now consider what it’ll be like as you line up, take a swab test and wait for the results.
2. You’ll need more than a passport
Some countries will not even take the chance of testing at the border – especially if you’re coming from an outbreak hotspot.The looks you will get if you cough or sneeze at an airport or on a plane will be scathing.Avi MeirShare this quote
Entrance will be refused unless you have a certificate of immunity due to the fact that you’ve recovered from an infection or because you’ve been vaccinated (once there are vaccines available). Wristbands with barcodes like those in the movie Contagion are a very real prospect.
Certainly in the short-term, travel will become more defined by purpose. Any business travel will need to be strictly validated as an economic activity, with companies tightening the numbers of employees who travel for them.
Countries will likely only open their borders where there is merit and it’s safe to let travelers through. This may mean temporary visas and more documentation that you’ll need to take with you when traveling.
3. Travel will have different (expensive) seasons
A very influential paper from Imperial College London speculates that governments will need to turn lockdown measures on and off in order to keep demands on healthcare systems at a manageable level.
This means there will be windows of opportunity to travel that last only weeks or even days. Even with airlines desperate to get airborne again, seats will be limited and we could see dramatic increases in pricing during those windows.
4. Recovery will be uneven
We’re seeing already that the factors influencing this pandemic are numerous. Strictness and timing of lockdown measures, robustness of healthcare systems, the weather, luck and other factors are all at work – meaning some countries and regions will recover first. We will see corridors of recovery open back up one by one.
How this will look exactly is difficult to predict. For example, Italy is days ahead of other European countries when it comes to the extent of its outbreak.
Might this mean it’s among the first to reopen its doors, like China? Or will the depth of the nightmare Italy is dealing with mean that it is more reluctant to let foreigners in?
5. You’ll pack differently
Have you seen the TikTok video of a man taking out a bag of wet-wipes and thoroughly wiping down his table and seat before sitting down for take-off? Well, it could be something you start to see in the flesh